HOW THE ANALYSIS WORKS

Race data are corrected using Time-on-Time correction; the Time-on-Time multiplier is calculated within the program for each boat from the Time-on-Distance number. The program corrects each race and determines the handicap that would be required for each boat to tie the “median” finish time of each race. This is done for each race in a data set.

The median ASP for each boat is determined next. The median is used instead of the average because it is less affected by `flukes' in the data and provides a more statistically sound performance number for small sample sizes.

STD DEV (Standard Deviation) The Standard Deviation of each yacht performance is also calculated. The Standard Deviation is a statistical measure of the spread or variation in the individual yacht performance race to race. A larger number means that the boat is inconsistent, a smaller number means the boat performance is more consistent race to race and the data are probably more reliable.

Statistically, for a normal distribution, approximately 67% of the data occur within plus and minus 1 Standard Deviation, 95% in plus and minus 2 Standard Deviations, and approximately 99% in plus or minus 3 standard deviations.

Steve Corona

It follows then that in order for a boat to do well consistently it must have a substantially negative median calculated TOD number. This does not mean that their handicap will therefore be adjusted unless the calculated TOD number is low for most of that class on Lake Ontario.

 

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